SanDisk (SNDK): Up 6,000% Since Spinoff — Still a Buy?
Key Takeaways
- SanDisk was spun back out of Western Digital as an independent public company in February 2025, and is up over 6,000% since its $52 debut price.
- Q4 FY26 revenue beat at $8.97B (vs. ~$8.3B expected); EPS beat at $39.25 (vs. ~$35 expected).
- An Investor Day laid out a long-term model of mid-to-high teens growth, 80% gross margins, and $42B+ in signed multi-year contracts — JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight with a $2,250 target.
- The stock is still down 30%+ from its 52-week high, and NAND has a long history of turning good stories into painful commodity cycles.
The Spinoff Story
SanDisk isn't a new company — it's an old name that came back. Western Digital acquired the original SanDisk in 2016, then spun the flash and NAND memory business back out as its own independent company in February 2025, keeping the same name and ticker.
What SanDisk makes: NAND flash memory and enterprise solid-state drives, the storage chips sitting inside everything from phones to hyperscale AI data centers. AI models don't just need compute — they need to store and move enormous amounts of data at speed, and that demand caught the memory industry off guard.
The Earnings
SanDisk's fiscal Q4 results beat on both lines: revenue of $8.97B against an $8.3B estimate, and EPS of $39.25 against a roughly $35 consensus. Days later, an Investor Day laid out a new long-term model — mid-to-high teens revenue growth, 80% gross margins, over $42B in signed multi-year customer contracts, and a $6B buyback authorization now that the company is net-cash positive. The stock jumped double digits, and JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight with a $2,250 price target.
The Other Side
SanDisk is down more than 30% from its 52-week high of $2,354.39, hit in June. Forward P/E sits above 33. NAND has never sustained 80% gross margins through a full commodity cycle before — every past supercycle in this industry ended the same way: oversupply, price collapse, margin compression. SK Hynix's recent Nasdaq listing adds a new way for investors to bet on AI memory demand, which could pull capital away from SanDisk rather than add to it.
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⚠️ Not investment advice. NorrisAI is not a registered investment adviser or fiduciary. AI-generated analysis may contain errors. Consult a licensed financial professional before investing.