Quick answer: NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 results (quarter ended July 26, 2026) showed $96.221B in revenue, up 106% year over year, with GAAP gross margin holding at 75.0%. This page runs those numbers through Framework 03 — Fair Value Stress Test — alone: bull, base, and bear assumptions, not a price target, not a buy or sell call.
A single-framework, dated snapshot built from NVIDIA's own Q2 FY2027 8-K and 10-Q. It exists to show what the Fair Value Stress Test framework actually does — name the assumption an optimistic case depends on, rather than hand you a number to anchor on. It does not run the other 14 AlphaLens frameworks (moat, earnings quality, management, macro, and the rest); a live run in the app does that on demand.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Quarter | Q2 FY2027, ended July 26, 2026 |
| Revenue | $96.221B (+18% q/q, +106% y/y) |
| Data Center revenue | $89.023B (+18% q/q, +117% y/y) |
| GAAP gross margin | 75.0% (74.9% q/q, 72.4% y/y) |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $2.46 · Non-GAAP $2.22 |
| GAAP operating income | $63.734B |
| Q3 FY2027 revenue outlook | $108.0B ±2%, assumes no China Data Center compute revenue |
| Q3 FY2027 gross margin outlook | 74.0% ±50 bps |
| Commitments | $279B |
| Senior notes issued in Q2 | $25.0B |
Sources: NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 8-K, filed Aug 26, 2026; 10-Q for the period ended July 26, 2026; Q3 outlook disclosed in that same 8-K; CFO commentary on the Q2 FY2027 results. No figure above is estimated or adjusted — all are as reported.
The Fair Value Stress Test framework's job is to name what has to hold true for each scenario, not to publish a price. None of the three below is a target:
| Scenario | What has to be true |
|---|---|
| Bull | Data-center revenue continues growing at something close to Q2's +18% q/q pace through the balance of FY2027, and China Data Center compute is later restored to the guidance base rather than staying excluded. |
| Base | Q3 lands inside the guided $108.0B ±2% range, gross margin holds inside the guided 74.0% ±50 bps band, and the China Data Center exclusion persists through FY2027 as currently guided. |
| Bear | Sequential data-center growth decelerates well below Q2's +18% q/q pace and/or gross margin prints below the low end of the guided 74.0% ±50 bps band as newer product costs pressure margins. |
Q3 guidance of $108.0B explicitly assumes no China Data Center compute revenue. Any change to that assumption — in either direction — moves the base case, not the framework's math.
NVIDIA issued $25.0B in senior notes during Q2 — a balance-sheet change worth tracking against the $279B in disclosed commitments, not something the prior capital structure carried.
$279B in commitments is a large forward obligation relative to a single quarter's $96.221B in revenue. That's a fact about scale and concentration, not a verdict on whether it's manageable.
It does not publish a live price target, a buy/sell/hold call, or an "undervalued by X%" figure. It does not update in real time — the numbers above are fixed to the Q2 FY2027 filing and the mid-September 2026 price context stated at the top. It does not run the other 14 AlphaLens frameworks — moat, earnings quality, management, macro sensitivity, and the rest need their own pass, live, in the app.
Fair Value Stress Test is one of 15 named research frameworks. Run all 15 on NVDA — or any US-listed stock — against live prices, current SEC filings, and today's news, not a fixed September snapshot.
Try AlphaLens Free for 7 Days →Framework: Fair Value Stress Test. Check the math yourself with the What's Priced In? calculator or the Margin of Safety calculator. New to the concept? See How to Value a Stock. More: all sample reports · how the research works.