Catalyst Calendar
Pick one date. Pick one number. Ignore the rest of the calendar.
This sits next to the "what would prove you wrong" work on How to Research a Stock and the checklist. You can keep a date in a notebook. Framework 09 is the same list, written up.
When to run it
- After the thesis and invalidator exist.
- Before an earnings date you are tempted to trade.
- When the internet is treating a conference keynote as a thesis event.
Do not run Framework 09 first. A calendar with no thesis is a sports schedule.
What the write-up is supposed to contain
A Framework 09 output should force:
- The dates that are actually on the clock (earnings, known rulings, known launches)
- One number or condition to watch on the nearest serious date
- What you will ignore (the beat/miss headline, the after-hours twitch)
- Whether the event can change the invalidator — yes or no
- What you will do if it does (re-underwrite, cut, nothing)
If the output is fifteen events with "high impact" on all of them, the run failed.
What this framework cannot do
- It does not tell you to buy the rumor.
- It does not read options positioning. That is Framework 10, and you do not need it to use 09.
- It does not call a squeeze. That is Framework 15, and you do not need it tonight.
- It does not replace Framework 13 (macro) or Framework 06 (size).
- It is not a reason to sit out every date.
Walkthrough: AMZN as a first 09
Notes a first calendar pass should produce
- Next earnings is a date. The watch item is whether AWS growth and spending still line up — not whether EPS "beat."
- A product event or AI keynote is not automatically a thesis event. If it does not touch the invalidator, it is marketing.
- A down 6% after-hours print is not, by itself, new information.
Still open: the exact date of the next print, pulled from the company's own IR calendar tonight. Write it when you open the page. Do not invent it here.
Handwritten version: How to Analyze a Stock, sections 6–7.
Full published run: AMZN analysis.
Do it yourself, then run 09
Before a credit:
- Write the invalidator in one sentence (Framework 05).
- Write the next date that could touch that sentence.
- Write the number you will look for on that date.
- Cover the ticker. If the "catalyst" is just "earnings," you are not done.
Then run Framework 09.
Common questions
Earnings is next week. Do I sell?
Not because a date exists. Sell or cut only if you cannot live with the invalidator printing. Size is 06, not the calendar.
What if there are six events this quarter?
Circle one. The other five are how people stay glued to the tape.
What do I run next?
Framework 05 if the invalidator is still a slogan. Framework 06 if the max size is unwritten. Stop after that.
Run Catalyst Calendar
Same demand: one date, one number. This is the optional faster pass — not a substitute for writing the watch item.
Try AlphaLens Free → Use code REDDIT-FREE-TRIAL · No card required · Then $39/mo or $299/yrThen write the number. Or ignore the date.