Macro Sensitivity Analysis
Which macro move would actually change your mind?
This is the tool version of step 6 on How to Research a Stock and section 6 on the checklist. You can do that step from Item 1A and a notebook. Framework 13 is the same filter, written up.
When to run it
- After the business makes sense (Framework 01) and you have at least a draft invalidator.
- When the name is cyclical, rate-sensitive, or eats a commodity — or when everyone on the timeline is trading the next print and you need to know whether this ticker should care.
- Before you let a CPI headline become a thesis change.
Do not run Framework 13 first. A macro map with no business description is a weather report.
What the write-up is supposed to contain
A Framework 13 output should force:
- The two macro variables that would actually change the earnings or the multiple
- What "bad" looks like in plain language (not "risk-off")
- What you will ignore (one print, one Fed speaker, one down week)
- Whether the current price already assumes the ugly version
- A sentence: this name is / is not a macro trade
If the output is a twelve-factor dashboard with no kill items, the run failed.
What this framework cannot do
- It does not forecast the Fed.
- It does not write the thesis. That is Framework 05.
- It does not value the stock. That is Framework 03.
- It does not size the position. That is Framework 06.
- It is not a reason to trade every inflation release.
Walkthrough: AMZN as a first 13
Notes a first macro pass should produce
- Two that can change the story: a long freeze in cloud/AI capex (AWS growth and spending stop lining up), and a real consumer recession that hits the store and the ads that sit on the store.
- Rates matter mainly as they change that capex and that multiple — not as a daily scoreboard.
- Dollar and freight are real for a global retailer. They are rarely the invalidator.
- Ignore: one CPI print, one FOMC press conference, a week of "risk-off" in the ticker.
Still open: whether this year's capex plan already embeds the ugly cloud case. That is a filing-and-guidance question, not a chart of the 10-year.
Handwritten version: How to Analyze a Stock, section 6.
Full published run: AMZN analysis.
Do it yourself, then run 13
Before a credit:
- Write two macro conditions that would change your mind on this name.
- Open Item 1A. Keep only lines that feed those two. Cross out the rest.
- Ask whether the current price already assumes one of them.
- Cover the ticker. Read the two conditions out loud. If they sound like "the economy," they are not done.
Then run Framework 13 and see whether the write-up names a third variable you should have kept.
Common questions
Rates went up today. Do I sell?
Only if rates were one of the two conditions you wrote, and the move is large enough to hit earnings or the multiple — not because the ticker is red.
Is every stock a macro stock?
No. If you cannot name two variables that would change this thesis, 13 will invent a dashboard. Skip it and go back to 05.
What do I run next?
Framework 06 if the max size is unwritten. Framework 05 if the invalidator is still a slogan. Stop after that.
Run Macro Sensitivity Analysis
Same demand as checklist section 6. Two variables, not a weather map. This is the optional faster pass — not a substitute for the two sentences.
Try AlphaLens Free → Use code REDDIT-FREE-TRIAL · No card required · Then $39/mo or $299/yrThen write the two conditions. Or ignore the print.