Options Flow Analyzer
Most unusual options activity is noise. Treat it that way until proven otherwise.
This is optional context after a thesis exists — Framework 05 — and after you know the next date that could matter — Framework 09. It is not step 1. The method pages are How to Research a Stock and the checklist.
When to run it
- After you already have an invalidator, and a tape looks weird into a known date.
- When a screenshot of "unusual flow" is doing the rounds and you need to deflate it.
- Never as the reason to buy.
Do not run Framework 10 first. Flow with no thesis is a sports bet.
What the write-up is supposed to contain
A Framework 10 output should force:
- What is actually unusual vs this name's normal options volume
- Calls vs puts, and whether that split can be a hedge
- The expiration that is doing the work — is it the event date from 09?
- One sentence: noise / hedge / cannot tell / worth a second look
- What you will not do with this page (no order ticket)
If the output says "institutions are loading calls," the run failed.
What this framework cannot do
- It does not tell you who is on the other side.
- It does not tell you to buy or sell.
- It does not replace the thesis (05) or the calendar (09).
- It cannot see dark-pool intent.
- It is not Framework 15. Squeeze talk and options screenshots are different diseases.
Walkthrough: AMZN as a first 10
Notes a first pass should produce
- Amazon has a huge, liquid options market. "Unusual" prints happen on quiet Tuesdays. Unusual ≠ informed.
- Into earnings, both sides of the chain get busy. That is positioning for a date, not a secret on AWS.
- A call sweep on a mega-cap is usually not a person who "knows." It is often a hedge or a roll.
- If 09's watch item is AWS growth vs spend, flow does not replace that number.
Still open: a specific expiration and strike pulled from today's tape. This page will not invent one.
Handwritten context: How to Analyze a Stock.
Full published run: AMZN analysis.
Do it yourself, then run 10
Before a credit:
- Write the invalidator (Framework 05). If it does not exist, stop.
- Write the next date that could touch it (Framework 09).
- Ask whether the loud strike expires on that date. If it does not, it is probably noise.
- Cover the ticker. If the only reason you care is the screenshot, you are done — ignore it.
Then run Framework 10.
Common questions
Calls are printing. Do I buy the stock?
No. Flow is a footnote to 05 and 09, not a ticket.
A thread said this is smart money.
Threads do not see the other side of the trade. Assume noise.
What do I run next?
Framework 09 if the date is unwritten. Framework 05 if the invalidator is unwritten. Stop after that.
Run Options Flow Analyzer
Same demand: is this noise, a hedge, or not enough to say. This is the optional faster pass — not a substitute for ignoring the screenshot.
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